The Remaining Merits Opinions
on Jun 18, 2007 at 3:57 pm
Updated 9:30pm
Jason’s forthcoming update to the Stat Pack will list all of the cases remaining to be decided for the Term. Here is my best guess on how they are divided. As always, the authorship predictions are highly speculative, when they can be made at all. (The details follow after the jump.)
December: race cases — the Chief Justice
February: Hein (religion) — the Chief Justice; Rita (sentencing) — Alito
March: Morse (bong hits), Wilkie (takings / government harassment), Leegin (antitrust), and Tellabs (securities) — divided among the Chief Justice, Stevens, Kennedy, and Alito
April: Defenders of Wildlife (environment), TSSAA (student athletics), Panetti (capital), and WRTL (campaign finance) — divided among Kennedy, Souter, Ginsburg, and Alito.
Here is the detailed version.
From December, we have the race cases. The Chief Justice is the only person not to have written from that sitting. Logically, he is authoring the decisions. His questioning at argument strongly suggests he views the programs as unconstitutional.
From February, we have two outstanding decisions: Rita (sentencing) and Hein (religion). Five Justices have not written from that sitting: the Chief, Stevens, Thomas, Breyer, and Alito. I think that the Chief and Alito are the likely authors. Thomas is out, having already written eight majorities. The Chief is unlikely not to have assigned himself anything from that sitting. And Justice Alito likely has three outstanding majority opinions (having authored five so far), making him a likely author in this sitting. Thinking of it from the Chief’s perspective, I would say that he has Hein (sticking to my most recent vacillating prediction) and that Alito has Rita (a view influenced by the sense of the lawyers in the field that the government won Rita).
From March, we have four outstanding decisions: Morse (bong hits); Wilkie (takings / government harassment); Leegin (antitrust); and Tellabs (securities). Six Justices haven’t written: the Chief, Stevens, Kennedy, Souter, Ginsburg, and Alito. The Chief is unlikely not to have assigned opinions to himself, Kennedy and Alito. Stevens likely could assign something to himself. This prediction is particularly cloudy, however, because an unknown member of the Court wrote the per curiam opinion in Watson.
From April, we have four outstanding decisions as well: Defenders of Wildlife (environment), TSSAA (student athletics), Panetti (capital), and WRTL (campaign finance). I think they are divided among Kennedy, Souter, Ginsburg, and Alito. Only Alito hasn’t written, so he has one. Souter and Ginsburg must be writing (if they didn’t in March) in order to get to seven opinions for the Term. Scalia, Thomas, and Breyer have each written twice, so they are out. That leaves Stevens and Kennedy, and I presume that Kennedy has the final opinion because the Chief would give him eight majorities for the Term.
