Analysis
With U.S. Solicitor General Elena Kagan now weighing what to do next on the hotly controversial EMILY’s List case, it already appears that her decision could have a major impact on next year’s national political campaigns, whatever choice she makes. If the Supreme Court gets involved, or if it does not, the influence of money on federal politics may change fundamentally — in future presidential contests as well as, perhaps, the 2010 congressional campaign.
The case is EMILY’s List v. Federal Election Commission, a case decided Sept. 18 by the D.C. Circuit Court (the opinion is here), and newly brought into public focus after the FEC split 3-3 in a vote last Thursday, thus refusing to request en banc review by the Circuit Court (an FEC news release, with access to statements by the commissioners, can be found at this link).
The case involves a successful challenge to a set of regulations adopted in 2004 by the FEC, seeking to curb high-volume spending by non-profit advocacy groups widely known as “527 corporations” — named for a provision of the tax code under which they were organized. (The author of this post has prepared detailed background on how the case developed before the FEC vote last week; it can be read here.)
Republican-leaning groups like Club for Growth and Democratic-oriented groups like MoveOn.org, and others like them, together spent more than $400 million to try to influence voters in the 2004 elections for President and Congress. EMILY’s List, a group that supports abortion rights and political candidates who share its views, failed to persuade a federal judge to overturn the restrictions last year, but a Circuit Court panel nullified them last month.
With the FEC passing up a plea for the Circuit Court to reconsider, some groups that support strict curbs on 527 corporations are urging Solicitor General Kagan either to make that request, or to go on to the Supreme Court with an appeal (see a press release available at this site from Democracy 21, one of those groups). There is no doubt that Kagan could take the case to the Supreme Court now; legal analysts are not sure she has the option of seeking en banc review, or whether that was a choice left to the FEC.
If she does neither, then the new restrictions are gone. As a result, non-profit 527s will be able to spend unlimited amounts of “soft money” — that is, money raised outside the donation limits of federal law — to attack or support federal candidates or parties, can spend freely on voter drives, and can solicit unrestricted amounts from donors. And, as one judge on the Circuit Court (Circuit Judge Janice Rogers Brown) noted, “Congress can do nothing about any of this.” That is because the majority of the Circuit Court panel based its ruling on the Constitution — subject to change only by amendment of the basic charter.
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