A few days after the President nominated Sonia Sotomayor, I labeled the question of her confirmation “over.” Along the same lines, I wanted to lay out why I think the hearings themselves will be a complete non-event.
Republicans have nothing significant to gain by making the hearing a media event, so they won’t. For her part, Judge Sotomayor is likely to adhere to the modern tradition of saying as little as necessary. The result is a conspiracy of convenience in which not much is likely to happen.
Start with the inevitable outcome. Absent a bombshell development, she is going to be confirmed. Democrats are about to have a 60-vote Senate majority. Moderate Republican Senators – e.g., Collins and Snow – will make up for any (unlikely) Democratic defection.
Nor is there any prospect of an effort to mount a filibuster. Opponents haven’t developed a narrative justifying that step.
The vote in the judiciary committee won’t be close either. Democrats have a dramatic 12-7 advantage in membership.
There are political disadvantages to drawing attention to the hearings. To the extent it has considered the question, the non-ideologically committed public – effectively, independents – seemingly likes her and thinks she should be confirmed.
Judge Sotomayor is of course the first Latina nominee to the Court. This is a historic moment for Hispanics. The third appointment of a woman is also significant, though less profound. Those are important electoral groups.
Beyond demographics, Judge Sotomayor has a compelling life story. She not only came from a poor upbringing, but she continues to live very modestly after a career of almost exclusive public service.
She is objectively qualified. She graduated at the top of her class at Princeton and did well at Yale. She was a prosecutor, private practitioner, trial judge, and appellate judge.
However positive the impression is now, it’s only going to gravitate further in that direction under what will presumably be a well-orchestrated White House roll out of her, the family, colleagues, and experts.
Publicly attacking Judge Sotomayor in the general population puts a Senator on the wrong side of public opinion.
Given that there is no real prospect of derailing Judge Sotomayor confirmation, and the prospect of causing self-inflicted wounds by attacking her, I expect that conservative Senators will lower their profile. They will note their opposition and state their principles, but limit their strong advocacy (that otherwise could come across publicly as badgering) to the already committed conservative community.
Contrast that with the array of “speakers” who have everything to gain with aggressive advocacy in support of Judge Sotomayor. The Judge herself will speak, and by all accounts will present herself very well. The Administration, liberal advocacy groups, supporting senators, and other varied supporters are all fully engaged.
They have a significant audience, with much to gain beyond the votes of undecided Senators in this inevitable confirmation. This will be a celebratory event for Hispanics, who will associate it with the President. Women will appreciate the Court’s greater diversity.
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