Thoughts on this Term and the Next
It’s always perilous to try and generalize about a Supreme Court Term. Roughly 80 cases on diverse topics decided by nine different people don’t collectively produce clear themes. When they do appear to, it’s often a mirage that reflects the coincidence of cases that happen to fall together by chance within a single term.
But that never stopped me before.
Here is what strikes me most about this Term. The Court is moving steadily in the direction of rolling back Warren Court-era precedents that conservatives view as significant overreaching of the judicial role. To be clear, that isn’t the Court’s principal occupation. Most of its docket is filled with important but ordinary questions of federal law. But it is a significant trend.
I am struck in particular by the opinions of the Chief Justice that seem to lay down markers that will be followed in later generations of cases. NAMUDNO details constitutional objections to Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act that seem ready-made for a later decision invalidating the statute if it is not amended. Herring contains significant language that can later be cited in favor of a broad good-faith exception to the Fourth Amendment exclusionary rule that applies to individual police mistakes.
If I’m right about the direction of the case law, the Court’s methodology is striking. It is reinforcing its own legitimacy with opinions that later can be cited to demonstrate that it is not rapidly or radically changing the law. This approach may be in the starkest relief if next Term the Court cites its recent decision in Wisconsin Right to Life as precedent for concluding that McConnell v. FEC and Austin v. Michigan have been significantly undermined and should be overruled. The plurality and concurrence in Wisconsin Right to Life famously debated how aggressively the Court should go in overruling prior campaign finance precedent. The Chief Justice urged patience – not moving more quickly than required – and the wait may not have been long.
There is nothing illegitimate about that approach. It’s easy to demonize decisions with which you disagree as either exercises in raw judicial power (the truth of the matter is that the principal difference between McConnell and Wisconsin Right to Life is that Justice O’Connor was replaced by Justice Alito) or outright sneakiness. Neither is accurate or fair. Just because one set of Justices gets to a constitutional question first does not give it a greater claim to “constitutional truth.” I disagree (sometimes substantially) with the direction of the law, but this incrementalism is rooted in a consistent vision of the law and a deep concern for the Court as an institution.
Overgeneralizing broadly, conservatives believe that doctrines like substantive due process, the exclusionary rule, and a high wall separating church and state aren’t merely wrong but overstep the limited role of judges and endanger the legitimacy of the Supreme Court. Turning back those decisions, in turn, is thought to (among other things) enhance respect for the Court. The Chief’s professional life is defined by the Court — as a clerk, Principal Deputy Solicitor General, private practitioner, and now the Chief Justice — and his institutional commitment to it, including ensuring that it is regarded as an institution of integrity rather than a political football (see my earlier post on the Ricci opinion) — is profound.
But that perspective – when taken by a thoughtful judge who has the long view – also counsels in favor of moving at a measured pace. If the Court instead were to announce in rapid succession the overruling of its prior decisions permitting regulation of campaign contributions, guaranteeing a right to an abortion, and finding affirmative action consistent with the Fourteenth Amendment, then the public would likely be left with the impression that constitutional law is nothing more than a power play between competing ideologies that reflect nothing more than the happenstance of the most recent appointments.
For the moment, there is no reason to rush. Time permits a jurisprudence of not just originalism, or textualism, but actuarialism. The sand running through this hourglass will not expire for eight years.
Later in his term, President Obama will likely replace Justice Stevens with someone else on the left. If he is reelected in 2012, he will replace Justice Ginsburg with someone on the left. Nothing changes.
